---

September 2011

Henrik Nielsen, September 2011

I just participated in a panel discussion at the Paris Bicycle Show organized by Didier Huré, Secretary-General of the Council of the French Bicycle Industry. The other participants were: Matthieu Brunet, CEO of ZEFAL, Matthieu Arrambourg, Marketing manager at SHIMANO and Jacques Bonneville, CEO of MATRA MS. As for the facilitator, it was the famous French sporting speaker, Patrick Chassé.

 

Below are presented the bicycle industry and the bicycles of today and how I expect them to change in the coming two decades.

Our society will change & so will our bicycles!

How will bicycle design develop? I suggest that you lean back and think of some mega trends that may impact our society in the coming years. I have identified a few of them.

Increase of fuel cost: Oil prices haven’t peaked yet and energy costs are likely to increase dramatically in the next decades. This will definitively strengthen the evolution of the urban bicycle as a means of daily transportation in all countries. The bicycle will become a serious alternative to the car for many people!

Increased health awareness: We want to live longer and better & don’t want to follow the trend of obesity, which is developing in the US and most developed countries. We want to break that curve and become more fit – thus helping the growth of urban, leisure and sports bikes. As a matter of fact,  the change will come from the higher social classes!

Sustainability and environmental thinking: People who cycle will be regarded as smart – as occurs in the Nordic countries, and recently in some European cities too. The bicycle will no longer be a means of transportation for the poor as is still the case in southern Europe, China…

Advanced Antitheft protection:  Why do I consider this as a megatrend? Because, unlike other products, the price of a bicycle  is not limited to what the consumer is willing to pay, but  by what he is not willing to lose if it gets stolen! That means that when we can crack the theft problem – the prices of the bikes will go sky high!  3000€ is not an unreasonable price for a smart, reliable and theft-protected city bike. When I see all the efforts to integrate antitheft tags, tracking systems, locking systems, insurance concepts etc., I’m convinced that we’ll manage to crack the theft problem in a near future. If I were the minister of transportation, that’s what I would primarily fund.

Better infrastructures:  Some countries already have quite developed bicycle paths and parking facilities for bicycles; others are just on the way. No doubt that the infrastructures will improve over the next decades and provide safer and more pleasurable biking experiences – both in cities and in the countryside.

New fashions, better clothing: I cannot predict what the fashion trends will be over a twenty year-span. However I expect the clothing and the bike industry to get closer to create products, accessories and clothes with higher design appeal and better suited for cycling – also when it’s raining!

Other trends will add up to these, as well as cultural differences across the continents. Americans favor novelty and dreams, European go for practicality and efficiency while for the Asians the cultural fit is of the highest importance. Within each region other very strong subcultures will influence evolution. Germans will focus on efficiency and reliability, the French will rethink functionality and the Italians will still get excited about the products per se.

Yet, the cyclists’ needs are the same in New York, Paris and Copenhagen. Today,  city bikes are very different in terms of design, reliability and pricing. But that is more due to cultural and historical reasons than differences in user needs and requirements. The mountain bike, which emerged in the 80’s, is virtually the same across the World. 

My best guess is therefore that differences in cultural requirements will fade out and be replaced by a larger variety of bikes meeting specific needs in all markets.

New technologies give new opportunities!

Most technologies used in bicycles today are pretty mature and I expect small improvements in improved performance of the main parts such as frames, wheels, drive systems, suspension etc.  Yet, with a radical change in offering and performance for:

Advanced antitheft systems: As already mentioned, this is a key factor to the development of the bicycle industry. All the solutions for making a bicycle, which cannot get stolen, are available today! It is just a matter of decision and refinement to make it happen. However, the decision is not easy because the solution is a complex one. It implies that governments, bicycle manufacturers, part suppliers and bicycle associations get together and decide, which locking technology and tracking system shall become standard. It will take time, but we’ll eventually get that antitheft nut cracked!

Electric power: Battery technology has improved a lot lately and we’ll see further progress over the next two decades. Basically it’s a question of how much energy you can store in one kilogram of battery – and how much it costs. More compact batteries and fuel cells will emerge. All this will make the electric bicycle more powerful and more user-friendly. We will also see bicycles without pedals! That’s what is called a scooter, you may say! Yes, but we may soon see a new generation of slow moving (<30km/h) electric pedal-less two wheelers on the bicycle paths! …and yes, the laws will have to be changed to accommodate this new trend. It’s worth it!

Electric power will also be used for lots of other purposes such as light, navigation, anti-theft systems, turn signals, horns and warning systems, charging facilities…

Obviously, governments and employers will implement charging facilities in strategic places.

Advanced composite materials: Today, composite materials are only used for high-end racing and  mountain bikes where the materials’ lightness and stiffness help to create more performing and better looking bicycles. These cycles are in most cases handmade and cost a fortune. By advanced composites, I mean injection molded parts, which integrate many functions. Thus a handlebar can be designed to integrate fixations for cables, brake levers, lights, smart phones etc. Composite materials will reduce costs and increase reliability and the perceived value of the bike.

There will also be other technological achievements, some of which are not even in their embryonic stage today (who had imagined fixing a smart phone to a bicycle 20 years ago? At that time, mobile phones were not even in mass production and the WWW had just been born!).

What will the bikes look like then?

At Nielsen Innovation, we use to say that there are two bicycle designs: One as seen at ten meters’ distance and one as seen at one meter’s distance. I don’t expect the ten meter design to change radically by 2030 and the geometry of the frame of the “standard” bicycle will to a large extent remain the same. The one meter design will on the contrary not be recognizable!  All the details will change, the product will be designed as a whole and the parts will be designed to fit together – both visually and functionally. The contrary of what we see today where there are the same Shimano or SRAM parts on all bikes. The only difference is the colored part of metal that connects the parts, ie the frame!

Most bikes will have some electric system. Bicycles for urban use and for leisure will have from 0 to 100% power assistance, depending on the region and the cyclist’s age, life style, distance to work etc. In all cases, the electric system will become an integral part of the bike and its interfaces (dials, knobs, lights…) will change the one meter design of the bike. My best guess is that more than 70% of the bikes in urban areas will be electric.

Integration, integration and integration…

Can you imagine buying a car and being asked : “do you also want front lights, rear lights, a lock, a speedometer… in your car?”. Probably not. Yet this is still what happens in most bicycle shops. But with the integrated bicycle most basic functions are included and options such as child carriers, baskets etc. can simply be clicked onto the bicycle and be securely fastened without any tools.

One very simple example of integration is the v-brake. Today’s v-brakes consist of 55 parts and have 17 parameters that need to be adjusted during assembly, at delivery and even after a few weeks use! If the same brakes were designed for one bicycle – without any requirements for compatibility with other bicycles – the number of parts would be halved and only one parameter would have to be adjusted. The function would be much more reliable, the design appeal increased and the cost reduced by 50%.

Those who know me also know that the integrated bicycle is one of my pet subjects and that I see it as the only way for the European bicycle industry to be profitable in the future …

After a quick check of the accounts of some bicycle manufacturers exhibiting at this show, I’m convinced that the present business model is wrong! I didn’t find one single bicycle manufacturer who has made any profit within the last two years! …scaring, isn’t it?

Who will win and who will lose?

Of all the arguments put forth above, my best guess is that the bicycle market will grow drastically over the coming twenty years, both in volume and in value. The average price of a bicycle in France will increase by a factor of 3 to 10 in 2011 prices, because the bikes will have better antitheft protection, be more reliable, have a higher design appeal and also be more practical for daily use.

Who will be the key players? I don’t think many – if any – of the existing bicycle brands/manufacturers will be able to take the turn! History has shown how difficult it is to change the mindset of an industry when it needs to adapt to a new paradigm. My guess is that the “winners” will come from other industries such as the car industry, the electronics industry or other industries where integration today is already a well understood principle. Alternatively, the winners can be well capitalized start-ups run by young and smart people. But it cannot start in a garage as many new bicycle companies do today. Someone has to invest big money in R&D and industrialization to build the success. On the other hand, I think that many of the part suppliers will survive, but their way of doing business will change. Their expertise in transmission systems, sitting comfort, wheel technology etc. will still be needed. They will just have to develop the new products according to the designs and specifications made by the bicycle brands.

And last, but not least, I believe the cyclists will get a much better cycling experience. The governments around the World will succeed in implementing their cycling policies. The bicycle industry will move closer to the markets and be converted from a merely manufacturing industry into a service industry too.

Voilà! Let’s get together again in 2030 and see who were right :-)

 

Henrik Nielsen,

henrik@nielsen-innovation.com, +33 6 07 51 30 27

September 2011

---

November 2009

 Handpresso bridges the gap between 2 worlds: the high end premium quality espresso world, with well-defined and well known codes, and the mobility world having no clear codes, in which the products have to convey this concept themselves.

 

Thus the formal and graphic language of Handpresso’s products is based on simple and classical volumes relating back to the rather traditional coffee world. We have to design products that are reassuring and clearly belong to the high end espresso world. The use of black with its aspect and finish as well as the brand image help conveying this impression.

 

By choosing simple shapes, classical colours and natural materials, Handpresso wants to reassure its customers. We thus gave us a guideline for our product design: always to show - via its colours and materials - that it belongs to the high-end espresso world but also the mobility world (small size, light machine, accessories to reinforce its portability and ease of use). 

 

 

The machine: the core concept

Handpresso launches a new concept, the nomadic espresso. In order to be able to propose such a concept, we reduced our machine to the bare minimum, thus going the opposite way compared to most of the manufacturers who integrate more and more functions in their machines. We almost removed them all except those absolutely necessary to make a premium quality espresso! And created the first portable espresso machine in the world –probably the smallest too.

 

It is obvious that such a concept generates new habits. The espresso is not prepared in the kitchen any longer, it is an experience shared with family and friends, inside as well as outside. At Handpresso, the design function goes much beyond the mere formal and stylistic survey. 

The role of design is to create new habits, which have to be accessible and understandable. To be understood, these habits have to refer to an existing pattern. We often speak of a « coffee ceremony » referring to the tea ceremonies that follow a well codified ritual. Likewise, our products create a ritual around the coffee preparation: the machine goes from one hand to another generating an exchange of experience among its users. There are other possible scenarios where, for instance, the owner of the machine becomes the master of ceremonies and « introduces it » to his guests. Everyone is then free to generate one’s own habits: at work, in the car, in the various means of transportation, there are no physical limits to drink a good espresso. Yet, in order to improve the understanding of this new concept, we have created a range of accessories around the machine to help its users to discover these new habits.

 

Accessories

Being able to drink an espresso outdoors is also a new habit that designers at Handpresso need to integrate to create products and accessories, which will guide our users in the discovery of these new habits. 

One good example is the creation of an « outdoor set » making it possible to bring all what you need to experience a nomadic espresso. This product is a direct answer to all problems of mobility and outdoor use.

We also created unbreakable cups for outdoor use, a thermos-insulated flask to have hot water always close to hand, carrying cases protecting the expresso machine. All these accessories reinforce the nomadic concept and facilitate the mobility of our products. 

Today, we keep on designing products and accessories always using the same creativity methods.

---

July 2009

You may not know what a no-man’s-land innovation is because the concept is pretty new. We invented it a few years ago, and are now starting to promote it to the industry.

A “No-man’s-land innovation” is when two or more companies from different industries get together to create a new product or service, which gives a better user satisfaction than what each company could have achieved on its own.

Just think of Nespresso or Senseo. Before these coffee pod concepts were born, the coffee and the coffee machine industry worked in parallel and independently of each other. Each industry continued to invest in improving what they were already good at: designing coffee machines and making roast and ground coffee. When the actors from both industries realized that they were all responsible for the quality of the coffee brew in the customer’s cup and the way the coffee is made, they managed to create a concept, which generates more added value than what each company could have done on its own. They entered the “no-man’s-land”, which separates both industries. They created a product concept, which gives a higher user satisfaction than what could be achieved otherwise. By bridging the gap between the two industries, they created a cleaner, more convenient and easier way to prepare your coffee. Furthermore, since the coffee brew quality depends on how the coffee and the machine fit together, they also improved the quality of the coffee in the end-user’s cup. The consumers are now willing to pay twice as much for a cup of coffee.

The concept can apply to virtually all industries. Also to yours – and your own imagination is probably the main obstacle to crossing the border. Most industries are afraid of sharing IP rights, know-how, customer information etc. and thus continue to invest in improving product offerings, which are already mature and high up on the s-curve. The yield of one € or $ invested in innovation is very low compared to what can be achieved by joining forces with bordering industries!

It’s a matter of courage and ambition as well as a structured way to achieve a common goal: higher user-satisfaction!

No-man’s-land innovations take time. We all know how rapidly mobile phones have developed over the past years. We also know how slowly the banks and credit card systems evolve. For me it seems quite obvious that in a very near future, these worlds will join forces and make a “bankphone”. The SIM card is already part of the security system. The mobile phone lets you access your bank accounts, check your payments etc. …and mobile phones are getting closer to credit card size. The question is now, who will take the first steps: the banks, the telephone providers…

Another obvious area is the car and bicycle industries. Both have developed in parallel for a century, and most leading car companies have recently started to launch their own bicycles. …but, I have seen no inclination whatsoever to make the two worlds fit together. Have you ever tried to fix your family’ bicycles to your car? Then you know what I am talking about. It can easily take 15 minutes and you are not even sure the bikes are still there when you arrive. Why haven’t the two industries made a simple, standardized bicycle fixation, which fits any car (of the brand)? …I am sure the need and demand are there. It would be a simple and cheap way to add value to two very competitive markets!

Now, look at your own industry! What are the bordering industries with whom you can create more added value?

Contact : Henrik Nielsen, Tel: +33 1 64 69 07 27